Editorial - Who is going to Win the Supervisor Seat in District 2?
In the final analysis, we have three front runners, two could have a chance, and one that can kick back and enjoy the race because he has no chance.
In a traditional analysis, Dave Pratt would win hands down with his well-funded campaign supported by more disclosed donors than all other candidates in the field, combined! Will the opposition be successful in painting him as the Pro-Development candidate? Will he suffer from the "Developer" Bogeyman? If not, he is the presumptive winner.
But this is a “Special” election with too many unpredictable variables. With the compelling nature of Ray Nutting’s removal and his dominate position in the district, Jennifer Nutting could easily win this race. All she needs do is get the district voters that strongly support her husband to the polls, and in a six-way race with very low turnout, she will win handily.
The powerful no-growth environmental lobby is in play and backing Shiva Frentzen. This makes her very competitive by itself, but she is also a sitting Cameron Park CSD member. She has a record of weak chairmanship performance in past committee service, but her past performance will have little opportunity to get to the average voters in the truncated time frame of this Special election. What most voters will know about is that she is a current member of the Cameron Park CSD. This, and Center/Moore support could push her over the top.
Both George Turnboo and Claire McNeil have a chance to take this race, but it is long odds. Turnboo has never drawn a big vote and is weak in Cameron Park, but a good turnout of his supporter and a highly divided race could give him enough votes to win. McNeil is even more of a handicapper’s nightmare. She is an unknown to the vast majority of voters, but she has the Money to fix that. The question is if any amount of money can propel an unknown to winner status in just a few weeks. Money does talk, but what it says to many voters in rural El Dorado County is not so clear.
In it for the experience:
That leaves new comer Amaral. He is unknown, underfunded, is an outsider to most. Without name recognition or a very well-funded war chest and experts in using it, Amaral cannot win. Additionally he is the only candidate that lists an El Dorado Hills address and has never voted in EDC before he ran for election himself. Our advice to him is to enjoy the experience.
Cris Alarcon, Publisher and Political Consultant.