10-year projection predicts shrinking school enrollment
Utilizing a geographic information system program and the analysis of databases of information about student enrollment records, birth rates for the past 10 years, projected new housing and school site facilities, a study projects student enrollment in the El Dorado High School District to drop by 4.75 percent over the next 10 years.
The study, by SchoolWorks, Inc., was presented to the EDUHSD Board of Trustees at the March 25 meeting. It projected a slow overall drop in enrollment for the entire district over the next 10 years and then broke down the data by school. The biggest drop in enrollment is shown for the 2014-2015 school year with a 90 student decrease, mainly in twelfth grade students.
EDHS shows a drop in enrollment for the next five years and then a very slight increase; Oak Ridge shows a slight increase in enrollment for six years and then a decline for the next four; Ponderosa is projected to decline in enrollment for the next 10 years , while Union Mine is projected to be stable for the next six years and then begin to grow.
The reason for the drop in the 2014-2015 enrollment is twofold,...