A little snow up high this weekend?
A little snow up high this weekend? It's funny, people have been asking about the Ironman forecast for weeks and most people were afraid it will snow. With the forecast for below average precip this Fall I laughed it off until the past week when the forecast models began to show a trough for the upcoming weekend. Still not expecting snow for the event, but definitely a change in the pattern as we turn the season to Fall over the weekend.
We have been seeing troughs begin to move through the Pacific NW the past couple of weeks and that was expected to continue. But with a typhoon near Japan strengthening the jet this week we will see amplification of the ridge/trough pattern similar to late Fall/early Winter. The trough over the weekend will dig a little further down the coast bringing colder air and some precip. The question is how much?
The forecast models are definitely not in agreement. The GFS is the driest keeping most if not all of the precip to our North. The European seen below brings in a little more precip Saturday into Sunday, but only enough for some light rain and maybe a dusting to a couple of inches Saturday night along the crest. Snow levels look to dip near 8000 ft. Saturday night.
The outlier is the Canadian which digs the trough even more and brings us over an inch of liquid on the West side of the basin. This is an outlier right now but something to watch this week. Which way is the forecast going to trend, wetter or drier? This will be the first battle of the forecast models this season to see who is more accurate a week out. If the Canadian were to pan out we could see several inches of snow on the peaks Saturday night.
The weather overall for the weekend will be cooler. After temperatures in the upper 60's to near 70 all week, we will stay around 60 degrees all weekend and even cooler on the mountains. Overnight lows will not be as cold with cloudy skies as they could be with clear skies, with lows expected in the 30's.
I was trying to get all of my firewood stacked this weekend and covered but didn't quite finish. Although it got wet either way from the thunderstorms this weekend. Even if we don't get wet this weekend it looks like another trough could drop in with precip by the middle of next week. There is decent forecast model agreement with this one. We could see some more light snow on the mountains.
Looking at the long-range forecasts there is the possibility of another trough bringing in precip around the 1st of October. If these storms pan out and we get some rain and snow the next couple of weeks it will be an interesting start to the Fall. We are still expecting a dry Fall overall, and then an increase in storms as we go into Winter.
The thinking on the Winter hasn't changed much in the past few weeks. We are still expecting an El Nino to come on as we head into the Winter, with increased precip for all of CA with the Southern storm track. I still have some work to do on analog years before the official Winter forecast comes out next month. The latest seasonal climate forecast from the CFS gives a good idea of how Winter is looking right now.
Here is the precip forecast for Oct-Dec with brown being below average and green above average.
Here is the Dec-Feb forecast as the precip becomes a little more average.
and here is the forecast for Feb-Apr when things really get going...
Still lots of work to do on the Winter forecast. I will post some more updates this week as we watch the system approaching for this weekend and next week. Stay tuned......BA
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