Romney Takes Electoral College Lead for 1st Time
The Romney campaign reached another milestone this afternoon. For the first time in the campaign, Romney now leads in RealClearPolitic’s electoral map. Previously, Obama had a 10-vote edge, but RCP has now moved North Carolina from toss-up to “lean Romney.” Romney now edges Obama 206-201 in the electoral college. The other 131 votes are rated “toss-up.”
Remember that the Democrats had high expectations for being competitive in North Carolina. They even convened their national convention there, confident that the state would again swing to Obama. The Obama campaign, however, has not visited the state since the end of their convention in early September. Romney RCP average of polls in the Tarheel state is a 6-point lead.
Florida looks like the next state to move out of Obama’s reach. Romney’s RCP average lead in the state is 2.5 points. I expect sometime next week RCP will move FL to “lean Romney”, followed soon after by Virginia, where Romney has been gaining support steadily since the first presidential debate.
The Obama campaign seems to be retreated to an inner-firewall of OH, NH, NV and IA. If Obama won all four of these states he would win reelection, but retreats can be difficult things to manage. Romney’s momentum doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. In fact, he is still gaining ground in the Gallup tracking poll.
The trends are not good for the Obama campaign.