Governor Brown's Disapproval Rating Hurting Prop 30

As election day draws increasingly near, Governor Brown might be worried that support for Proposition 30 remains a very slim majority and numbers haven’t budged much, which some might call a weak showing at this point in the campaign with November just weeks away. The new poll results stem from the Public Policy Institute of California and the latest report reveals just a slight majority are in favor of Proposition 30, which would raise sales tax and income tax on the rich as a way to patch together the state budget. Record high disapproval of the governor among likely voters may play a factor in Prop 30’s numbers. As for the rival tax measure, Proposition 38 from Molly Munger, voters are evenly split with 45 percent supporting and 45 percent opposed.

Poll results on Proposition 32 are also noteworthy from the PPIC. Unions aren’t taking any chances on this measure because it would prohibit unions from using money from payroll deductions for political purposes. So labor groups have been gathering millions to defeat Prop 32 and it appears their advertising blitz has turned the tide against the measure, with 49% now saying they would vote no and 42% in support. The Tribune reports that “both Democrats and Republicans generally favor reining in unions' and corporations' political influence, yet a deep partisan divide is emerging on Proposition 32.”

While the poll shows that overall it’s still hard to say whether all three measures will pass (or fail), the key takeaway seems to be that voter turnout of certain demographics will play a big part in the fate of these measures. For instance, men and seniors don’t have as solidly favorable opinions of Propositions 30 and 38, but consider the following points: 59 percent of women are in favor of Prop 30 and 50 percent support Prop 38. And here’s a breakdown in support for voters aged 18-34: 72 percent for Prop 30, 67 percent for Prop 38. And Latinos are 66 percent for Prop 30 and 58 percent for Prop 38. Lower income voters also show a larger margin of support for Proposition 30.

Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO, commented, “Turnout will be an important ingredient in determining the November outcome of the two tax measures since these initiatives have much stronger support among young, Latino, and women voters, and narrow majorities of independent voters are favoring both measures today.”

Voters in California haven’t even begun to be bombarded by ads, mailers, etc. so as John Myers said, “There's a lot of campaigning left to do.” And time will tell how that campaigning shifts support and opposition on a crowded list of measures. You can find out how voters view the other initiatives on the ballot here.

http://www.californiacountynews.org/2012/09/voters-feeling-undecided-on-...